The Determined Trader

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

A few revelations from a few days of trading.

Been a rough couple days. Not terrible losses, but not closing up. I have been writing things down in the day,. Just short statements that I need to embed into my trading. I will type them out and write a little bit about them now.

To make sure the trade is as unemotionally attached to money as possible, try to get your entries RIGHT where the turn is, from strength to weakness, from weakness to strength. It is difficult to buy a stock as he moves higher because it is near a guarantee that it will be out of the money for you, keeping your finger on the button, and making the trade emotionally attached to the idea that you are losing money..

Always get the entry as the stock is turning so you have the best pricing. In addition, you can get best pricing by having an offer or bid near the buyer or seller. For example, BOL today was very weak, and he was trading around the .70-.80 range, but he LOVED snapping it up to .00 just to play around with you. Now, you can go to the market to short it because he is trading a lower range in the mid 70s or so, but putting an offer out in the mid 90s gives you better pricing, and IMMEDIATELY puts you into the money. This allows you to settle down and let the trade do whatever it wants without having to worry about taking a major loss.

If the stock wants to be strong all day, and if you have interest in holding it all day, it should continuously break the higher range and trade into a higher range. If the stock moves lower and trades a lower range, you may want to take some profits as it tries to move into a lower range from there. Perhaps this isn’t the time to hold it, and you will get a better entry.

Try to find out where the stock is printing a lot of shares, where the buyer and seller are trading a lot of shares back and forth to each other. It shows that this price is critical in the future movement of the stock.

If you can’t spot a general trend, you will be whipsawed by unpredictable buyers and sellers who will control the stock. If you are involved in a stock that you really aren’t reading well, you will soon be faced with something that IS readable, and chances are good its going to be an aggressive move against you. (plus tick bidding buyer taking a decent position, moving the stock just enough to put you out of the money and in an uncomfortable situation.)

If a stock is trading in a range, lets say between 60-80, and now it is trading between 70-80, then eventually at the 80. You need to be involved in some way, because you will be adding as he moves higher then 80 and chances are he will be moving very quickly, because late comers are waiting for the .81, but you spotted the buyer earlier as he supported the stock hugging the .80.

Is the stock doing what you expected it to do? if not, what you saw is probably gone. If a stock is showing a definite sign of soon to come movement, and it doesn’t move soon, it likely is because someone is holding it down, that same someone is going to move that stock lower. Keep the position light until he starts doing what you expected.

Especially in the morning, if a stock is trading a lower range, or trading a higher range, you need most of your shares in the SECOND higher or lower range, not the third, or fourth. By then it is too late and you missed your perfect entry.

If a stock looks weak because you have spotted a seller, and the stock eventually goes thru that seller, it doesn’t take away the fact that the seller exists. You very well might see him later in the day. Make sure as the seller is taken out in a specific area, that he is done. Many times he prints thru it and comes right back because the seller is just taking their time to reload some more shares. A small seller that gets taken out is still a sign that this stock has sellers in it. Until proven otherwise, or the seller was MAJOR, you still want to be bearish on the stock.

DONT TRY TO PREDICT WHERE THE STOCK WILL BE IN 5 MINUTES. YOU ARE TRYING TO PREDICT WHERE IT WILL BE IN 1 HOUR. This means you need to consider the futures, the general trend, the vigor of the trades in the stock, and your entry.

If a stock has issue going thru its high or low, it should DEFINATELY go thru the second time around. The buyer/seller has a certain number of shares and their program kicks on to take those shares at a certain price. If the stock is able to make it back to that initial price, it is definitely going thru it. If not, chances are this buyer/seller is going to take a lot to go thru and you shouldn’t allow the stock to go against you because they might control the trend of the stock very soon against you.

You don’t have to be at a loss to get out of your shares. If the stock isn’t SOON doing what you expected, then likely what you saw wasn’t as significant as you expected. Get out before your exit is tested and eventually pushed thru for a lose that you shouldn’t have taken. You KNOW this feeling. "He shouldn’t be trading here anymore after what I saw" Something isn’t right and you need to revaluate this trade. This is especially seen on Fridays because buyers/sellers are much smaller and show up spontaneously to get a handful of shares and then they are gone.

On Fridays, buy the end of weakness and short the end of strength. Entries are VERY important. It is very hard to buy into strength and short into weakness with smaller buyers and sellers. You need those good entries to make sure you have some leeway, and some room to be able to read how big the person moving the stock is. Chances are good they aren’t as big as you expected on a Friday.

There is an advantage to getting out, and looking for reentry. It makes you more conscious to letting a stock go that is weak. Instead of thinking ”i can afford a pullback" you are actually thinking "i don’t want to get involved in a stock that doesn’t look as strong as it use to."

IMPORTANT: Unless there is a freak movement, losses shouldn’t be but .10, .15 cents, meaning entries are for VERY specific reasons, and VERY definite and visible patterns. There shouldn’t be a time where you get into a stock because it may move .20 when the pullback can easily be .40. It’s a losing equation.

Try using more limit orders to short and buy. This makes for better pricing near where you saw the reason to get involved. Many stocks you see a reason at .20 and you get filled at .05 Not only does that take away from your profit, not only is that an extra .15 loss if you have to get out, but it also plays with the leeway you can give the stock, and the objective setting of being in the trade.

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